At the Paris Climate Change Conference in 2015, Canada’s newly elected Liberal government was roundly applauded for helping propel an ambitious new “aspirational” target of limiting the global rise in temperatures to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
This goal is based on the scientific evidence that suggests any more will trigger dangerous “tipping points” and condemn the world’s most vulnerable populations to widespread misery: a new norm characterized by extreme weather phenomena, food shortages, draughts, ecosystem collapse, flooding, mass extinctions, and the violent conflicts that such events inevitably entail.
And there is hope. A new analysis published in the journal GeoScience found that the 1.5 degree goal is more achievable than initially thought, but only if much stronger reduction targets are achieved for 2030 than those currently proposed. If we don’t step up our efforts drastically, however, a leaked draft of the next IPCC report suggests that the 1.5 degree mark may be hit in only twenty years, with a 3 to 4 degree increase by the end of the century.
Humanity is losing the battle against climate change, and Canada’s hypocrisy and incoherence places our country front and centre in the collective failure.
Justin Trudeau’s Liberals were elected on a promise of heeding the science. Yet in the two years since returning from Paris, they have adopted Stephen Harper’s weak reduction target of 30% below 2005 levels by 2030, released a climate plan that by the government’s own estimates fails to achieve even those targets, and then undermined their efforts by launching full throttle into massive expansion of the oil and gas sector, Canada’s single largest emitter.
Far from ratcheting up their ambitions as the science demands, the Liberals have since weakened their commitments, delaying crucial measures to cut methane emissions until at least 2023 — a greenhouse gas at least 25 times more potent than carbon dioxide.
Humanity is losing the battle against climate change, and Canada’s hypocrisy and incoherence places our country front and centre in the collective failure.
Canada, the carbon champion
At 722 megatonnes, Canada’s current emissions are almost 20% higher than they were in 1990 and virtually unchanged from 2005. Why? Because as our emissions from electricity generation and heavy industry have gone down since 1990, two runaway trends have been pushing us stronger in the opposite direction: the growth in the number of cars on the roads, and the unchecked expansion of oil and gas extraction, whose emissions have soared by 76%. The bulk of our emissions today thus come from the oil and gas and transportation sectors, which respectively account for 26% and 24 % of our total.
The result is that we are now the second most carbon and energy-intensive economy in the industrialized world. The latest report card issued by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development in December found that Canada uses 62% more energy and produces 44% more emissions for every $1,000 of GDP than the OECD average, far more even than other resource-based economies.
Justin Trudeau, the pipeline prime minister
In words, the Liberals acknowledge the scale of the challenge, and are indeed moving ahead with welcome investments in public transit and green infrastructure that should have begun decades ago.
The problem is that, in typical Liberal fashion, the government’s right hand is hard at work nullifying the efforts of the left – so that when the measure is made between words and acts, a chasm invariably opens in between.
The Liberals’ signature climate policy is a carbon tax that, at its peak of $50 per tonne in 2022, will still be far below the level experts say is needed to have a significant impact on emissions, at least not without a suite of robust measures designed to reinforce the economy-wide transition away from fossil fuels.
Yet far from reinforcing, the Liberals are engaged in a spirited push in the opposite direction.
As the Liberals’ left hand slaps a carbon tax on emissions, the right hand continues to funnel billions of dollars a year in subsidies to the fossil fuel industry, with still no plan in sight to phase them out as promised.
Not even Stephen Harper’s Conservatives approved so many major oil and gas projects in their ten-year reign. And the Trudeau Liberals have only just entered their third year.
As the left hand, in the form of Environment Minister Catherine McKenna, rallies an anti-coal coalition at the United Nations – an easy PR win for Canada, which derives only 11% of its energy from coal – the right hand is engaged in a pipeline-pushing frenzy, championing no fewer than three new oil sands pipelines or expansions carrying one of the highest-emitting sources of fuel on the planet.
Among these are the Keystone XL pipeline now revived by Donald Trump after President Obama blocked it, and all are in addition to the Pacific NorthWest liquefied natural gas project the Liberals approved early in their mandate.
Not even Stephen Harper’s Conservatives approved so many major oil and gas projects in their ten-year reign. And the Trudeau Liberals have only just entered their third year.
PR over the planet
The Liberals insist that we can simultaneously increase oil and gas production while reaching our emissions goals, which is akin to believing you can row feverishly away from your destination and trust the efforts of your rowing companions to get you there. The least that can be said of such a stance is that it is dangerously irresponsible and wildly underestimates the steepness of the climb Canada faces in its emissions battle.
The OECD’s December report lays bare the evidence: the expansion of Canada’s oil sector, projected to grow by 50% between now and 2040, “seriously risks the achievement” of our targets under the Paris Agreement.
Canada’s oil sector, and the oil sands more especially, are more than just an elephant in the room. They are a stake through the heart of Canada’s climate efforts
A new analysis published in Policy Options goes much further. Using projections furnished by Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), the governmental department responsible for tracking our greenhouse gas emissions, the authors calculated that “only with a complete phase-out of oil production from the oil sands, elimination of coal for electricity generation, significant replacement of natural-gas-fuelled electricity generation with electricity from carbon-free sources, and stringent efficiency measures in all other sectors of the economy could Canada plausibly meet its 30 percent target.”
Eyes on Canada
Canada’s oil sector, and the oil sands more especially, are more than just an elephant in the room. They are a stake through the heart of Canada’s climate efforts – and why an increasingly vocal roster of international leaders, from the OECD to France’s Emmanuel Macron, are abandoning the usual diplomatic bromides to urge “courage” from Ottawa in matching its actions to the scale of the crisis at hand.
The world welcomed the Liberal government’s good intentions on the climate front. They may now be coming to see, much as Canadians are, that it’s not heart the Trudeau Liberals lack. It’s spine.
Unfortunately for the climate, the consequences may be all but the same.